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本文针对沈阳市最新的人口“六普”数据,采用描述统计的方法多维度分析了沈阳市人口现状及变化特点;采用ADF平稳性检验和Johansen协整检验方法研究了人口与经济发展之间的长期协整关系;运用向量误差模型(VEC)分析了短期内的人口因素变化对经济发展的影响;通过脉冲响应函数(IRF)分析了人口因素变化对于区域消费和收入响应的敏感程度。结果表明,沈阳市正处于人口红利末期与老龄化初期并存的发展关键阶段,人口因素无论长期还是短期,对于区域经济增长都有显著的正向影响,并且消费支出和人均收入对于人口因素短期内的冲击十分敏感。
This article aims at the latest population “Liupu ” data of Shenyang City, using the method of descriptive statistics to analyze the status quo and change characteristics of population in Shenyang City by multi-dimension; using the ADF stationarity test and Johansen cointegration test to study the population and economic development The long-term co-integration relationship between the two factors; the use of vector error model (VEC) to analyze the short-term changes in population factors on the impact of economic development; by impulse response function (IRF) analysis of population changes in regional consumption and income responsiveness. The results show that Shenyang is at a crucial stage of development with the simultaneous demographic dividend and the early aging. Population factors, both long-term and short-term, have a significant positive impact on regional economic growth. Moreover, consumer spending and per capita income have a positive impact on population growth in the short term The impact is very sensitive.