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四川省西部的鲜水河地震带近三个世纪来(1700年—1982年)共发生震级M≥5级的地震55次,其中M≥6级的地震26次,其频度和强度均高,在川滇强震危险区中有其重要的位置。从图1可见,地震在时间轴上的分布不均匀,分段成丛出现。本文试图以该带较丰富的中强震资料,采用游程论中以一定信度定量地对序列数值作随机或趋势性检验的方法,以及时间序列分析方法,对该带地震危险性进行预测。
In the past three centuries (1700-1982), the Xianshuihe seismic zone in the western Sichuan Province has occurred a total of 55 earthquakes with an M ≥ 5 magnitude, of which, 26 earthquakes with M ≥ 6 have higher frequencies and intensities , Sichuan-Yunnan earthquake risk zone has its important position. As can be seen from Figure 1, the distribution of earthquakes on the time axis is not uniform and the segments appear in clusters. This paper tries to predict the seismic hazard of this zone by using the data of moderate to moderate strong earthquake with this method, using the method of random or trend test of sequence number quantitatively with some confidence in run theory, and time series analysis method.