潘基文:前路艰辛

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  刘佩 译
  2006年10月9日,联合国安理会正式通过任命潘基文为新一届联合国秘书长。这位62岁的韩国外交通商部长官于2007年1月正式上任,执掌联合国。
  联合国秘书长一职,一向有“不可能的任务”之称:周旋于发展中国家和发达国家之间,协调192个成员国的分歧,面对联合国自身改革的巨大压力和阻力费尽周折……
  朝核危机已然爆发,来自朝鲜半岛的潘基文前路更加艰辛……
  
  A Tough Job for Ban Ki-moon
  To succeed as secretary-general of the UN, Ban Ki-moon must first earn the respect of a 1)fractious group of member states, then conduct internal reforms.
  The secretary-general of the United Nations is, according to its 2)charter, merely the body’s “3)chief administrative officer”, who may bring to the notice of members any situation that threatens world peace. Yet in recent years the role of the world’s chief diplomat has grown; some even regard the secretary-general as a “4)secular pope”. 5)Dag Hammarskjold was the organization’s first superstar. 6)Kofi Annan, the outgoing secretary-general, has ever been widely admired.
  Ban Ki-moon, who was due to be confirmed as the new secretary-general on Friday, October 13th, 2006 by the 7)UN’s General Assembly, is hardly colourful or charismatic. “Grey” and “hardworking” are common descriptions and even he considers himself to be “basically a harmoniser”. But this could work in favour of the South Korean.
  Secretaries-general have little formal power. Instead, they depend on their ability to convince member states to do the right thing. When the most bitterly charged issues come before the UN, the organisation——and its head——suffer as top member states clash. Mr. Annan lost favour during the build up to the war in Iraq. George Bush’s administration has never forgiven him for opposing the war; others remain furious that he did not do so forcefully enough.
  The right 8)rhetorical and managerial style may allow secretaries-general to overcome, to some degree, the lack of formal authority. Mr. Ban may do well to use his harmonising skills first, and quietly, in New York, by showing himself to be an able administrator. Unlike his predecessor, he is lucky to have two and a half months to prepare. (New secretaries-general take office on January 1st; Kofi Annan was not chosen until December 17th.) He will no doubt spend the time 9)contemplating the appointments he must make.
  Not least of these will be his choice of a deputy. The job, created in 1998, has become a powerful one under its current holder, 10)Mark Malloch Brown. If, as Mr. Ban plans, the deputy will be doing much of the daily administration, he may be wise, politically, to choose someone from the developing world who commands trust from the “11)G77” (a group of 132 poor countries). That said, he should seek to hire staff on the basis of merit, not nationality.
  With a trusted enforcer running the shop on a daily basis, Mr. Ban can revive a bargain that Mr. Annan tried and failed to strike. In return for doing more on issues dear to the poor world, like development or peacekeeping which require heavier spending, he will seek greater power. He needs to convince poor countries to support a call for the secretary-general to have more discretion over budget and staff, a reform they rejected when put forward by Mr. Annan earlier 2006. With this half of the deal in hand, Mr. Ban could then promise the UN’s paymasters, principally America, to strengthen internal oversight as well as the appointment of an outside auditor.
  While building bridges internally, Mr. Ban will not be able to avoid global diplomacy. But here lie even bigger pitfalls. Mr. Ban, as all secretaries-general, will be asked by member states to take on jobs without being given sufficient resources to do so, whether in the form of peacekeepers, money or diplomatic support. Mediating in war-torn regions is well and good, but all too often the organisation fails to 12)follow up because member states do not 13)deliver on promises. In the aftermath of the recent war in Lebanon the UN has dispatched just 5,500 peace-keepers, a third of its authorised strength.
  One of Mr. Ban’s most urgent tasks may yet be closer to home: North Korea. As South Korea’s outgoing foreign minister, he knows the situation well, but he will be in no position to make the running on North Korea, given Chinese, Japanese and American interests. It is a maddening job Mr. Ban has won, but recognising its limits can be a source of strength.
  对于顺利当选为联合国新任秘书长
   的潘基文来说,其头等大事便是赢取争执不休的成员国的尊重,然后着手推行内部改革。
  根据《联合国宪章》,秘书长仅仅只是联合国的“首席行政官”,其职责是在出现任何威胁世界和平的情况时,提请各成员国注意。然而近年来,联合国秘书长却越来越多地扮演着世界首席外交官的角色,一些人还称其为“世俗化的教皇”。达格·哈马舍尔德(联合国第二任秘书长)是联合国的首位明星级人物,即将卸任的科菲·安南也曾赢得了广泛赞誉。
  2006年10月13日星期五,潘基文被联合国大会正式任命为新任秘书长,他并不是一个有着丰富个性和充满领袖魅力的人。“低调”和“勤勉”是最常用来形容他的字眼,甚至他也认为自己“基本上是个调解者”,然而这种工作方式却可能有利于韩国。
  联合国秘书长几乎没有明文规定的权力。相反,他们要倚仗自身的能力说服成员国做正确的事情。一旦最棘手、最难处理的问题发生,而各大强国争持激烈时,联合国及其秘书长就会吃尽苦头。前任秘书长安南在伊拉克战争开战前夕失去了各方的支持。布什政府一直没有原谅安南的反战态度,而其余成员国则依然对安南没有采取强有力的反战行动很愤慨。
  恰如其分的说服能力和管理技巧,在某种程度上,可以弥补秘书长职位实权的缺失。在纽约,潘基文可以不露声色地运用其娴熟的协调技巧,证明自己是一名称职的管理者。比前任秘书长幸运的是,潘基文有两个半月的时间做些准备工作。(新秘书长一般于1月1日正式上任,而科菲·安南当年直到12月17号才被选出。)毫无疑问,他将利用这些时间对上任后要做的事情仔细筹划一番。
  潘基文的当务之急是确定副手人选。副秘书长一职是1998年设立的,现任副秘书长马克·马洛赫·布朗已经把这个职位变得举足轻重。按照潘基文的计划,这名副手将负责大部分的日常行政管理事务。如果计划实现,那么从政治上考虑,潘基文应该从发展中国家选择“77国集团”(由132个欠发达国家组成)信任的人来担任此职才是明智之举。然而,他仍应该基于才干而非国籍来组建他的班子。
  有一名各方信赖的副手为其打理日常事务,潘基文便能腾出手来磋商一项安南曾提出而未能达成的协议。他将谋求更大的权力,而一旦成功求取,他会开展更多对欠发达国家的工作作为报答,例如发展经济、维护和平,这些将需要更大的开销。他需要说服欠发达国家支持让秘书长对经济预算和人员任免拥有更大的自决权。2006年初,安南曾提出这项改革,但遭到欠发达国家的反对。如果这项改革现在能顺利通过,潘基文便可以向联合国的会费承担国,主要是美国,承诺加强对联合国内部的监督,并从联合国以外聘请审计师。
  潘基文一方面要构建内部的沟通桥梁,另一方面,全球外交也是他不容推卸的义务。这个领域陷阱更多。与其他秘书长一样,潘基文也将会被其成员国要求承担工作,但并不给其足够的资源完成工作,无论是在维和兵力、金钱或是外交支持方面。在饱受战争之苦的地区开展调停工作确实是件好事,但联合国常常由于成员国没有兑现承诺而半途而废。在最近一次黎巴嫩战争结束后,联合国仅向当地派驻了5500名维和士兵,仅占联合国原本同意派出的兵力的1/3。
  目前,潘基文最紧迫的工作之一便是密切关注自己国家的邻国:朝鲜。作为即将卸任的韩国外交部长,他对局势了如指掌。但由于牵涉中国、日本和美国的利益,他无法出面敦促朝鲜停止制造核武器。潘基文得到的是一个劳心伤神的职位,但认识到秘书长工作的局限性,恰恰可能成为一种力量来源。
  


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