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根据1999~2013年我国12个粳稻主产区省际面板数据，基于投入导向DEA分析法，测算与分解各地区粳稻TFP及其分解项。结果表明，技术进步与粳稻生产效率变化趋势基本一致，技术效率下滑阻碍生产效率上升。在此基础上，采用Tobit模型分析粳稻生产效率影响因素，得出结论：农业机械化水平处于边际收益递减阶段，化肥施用利用率较低，人力资本对粳稻生产率存在负向影响；城镇化水平促进TFP和技术效率提高，但对技术进步具有反向作用；惠农政策显著促进技术进步，但与TFP呈负相关。提高粳稻生产率，须由技术进步“单轨效应”向技术推进和规模效率“双轨驱动”转变，培育新型经营主体，实现适度规模经营。,Based on the inter provincial panel data of 12 main grain producing regions of China during 1999-2013, TFP and its decomposition items of Japonica Rice in different regions were calculated and decomposed based on the input oriented DEA analysis method. The results showed that the technological progress and the change trend of the production efficiency of Japonica rice were basically the same, and the decline of technical efficiency hindered the rise of production efficiency. Using Tobit model concluded that agricultural mechanization in the phase ofdiminishing marginal retsand fertilizer utilization rate was low, the negative influence to the japonica rice productivity of human capital was Urbanization level could promote total factor productivity and the improvement of technical efficiency, but had a reverse effect on technological progress; agricultural policies promoted technology progress significantly, but were negative correlated to the total factor productivity. To improve the efficiency of japonica rice, single effect of technology progress should be transferred todual track drivenof technical progress and production scale, in combination with cultivation of new agricultural businesses, which contributed to realize moderate-scale agricultural management.