MD(Modal Demand)客运量预测理论与方法诞生于日本,是一种特别适用于客运专线等新型交通方式的预测模式。文章在分析了MD模型的假设、定义和原理的基础上,对其中的旅客行为时间价值参数的标定、旅客出行效用参数的标定和潜在客运需求函数的构建等关键技术问题进行了系统的研究,并提出了一套MD模型的计算方法。 MD (Modal Demand) Passenger Volume Forecasting Theory and Method was born in Japan, which is a prediction mode especially suitable for new modes of transportation such as passenger dedicated lines. Based on the analysis of the assumptions, definitions and principles of the MD model, the paper systematically studies the key technical issues such as the calibration of time-value parameters of passenger behavior, the calibration of passenger travel utility parameters and the construction of potential passenger demand function. And put forward a set of MD model calculation method.