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对新疆及邻区1902—2014年间的M_S≥7.0级的强震数据,运用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图、地震震中对称结构等方法对该区域地震灾害的时空对称性规律进行了分析和总结。结果表明:新疆及邻区在2021年发生M_S≥7.0地震的信号较强,据蝴蝶结构图计算出2021年发生M_S≥7.0地震的概率为68.4%,不漏报置信水平为65%;未来地震震中可能向东北方向迁移,大致的空间位置在41.5oN以北,81oE以东。且地震集中分布在太阳黑子谷年附近,太阳活动目前正处于太阳黑子第24周期极大年附近,预计在2020年进入谷年。因此2021年新疆及邻区发生M_S≥7.0地震的概率很大。该区域地震与地球自转速度有一定的关系,在减速期发生地震的可能性较大,且速度转换持续时间越长越易发生地震。对丰富灾害学以及可公度法的探索具有一定价值。
This paper analyzes and summarizes the spatiotemporal symmetry law of earthquake disaster in this area by using the method of commensurate calculation, butterfly structure and epicenter symmetry structure to the strong earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 between 1902 and 2014 in Xinjiang and its adjacent areas . The results show that the signal of M_S≥7.0 earthquake occurred in Xinjiang and its adjacent areas in 2021 is strong. According to the butterfly structure diagram, the probability of M_S≥7.0 earthquake in 2021 is 68.4% and the confidence level is 65%. The future earthquakes The epicenter may migrate to the northeast, with a general spatial location of 41.5oN north and east of 81oE. The earthquakes are concentrated in the vicinity of the solar sunspot valley. The solar activity is currently near the 24th cycle of sunspots and is expected to enter the valley in 2020. Therefore, the probability of an M_S≥7.0 earthquake occurring in Xinjiang and its neighboring areas in 2021 is very high. The earthquakes in this region have a certain relationship with the rotation speed of the earth. Earthquakes are more likely to occur during the deceleration period, and earthquakes are more likely to occur when the duration of the velocity transition is longer. It is of great value to the exploration of rich catastrophe and applicable law.