从今年秋粮收获情况来看,全国玉米总产将较去年有所减少,但预计仍可达1.2亿-1.25亿吨。大豆今年全国种植面积减少使总产量降低早成定局。据有关人士估计,全国大豆总产比上年减少约5％左右。虽然今年玉米、大豆等饲料原粮总产量较上年有所减少,但展望后市,仍然不容乐观。 首先,我们来分析一下玉米供需形势。众所周知,全国年玉米消费总量约在1.15亿吨左右。即使明年饲料行业开始走出低谷,估计全年玉米需求总量也不会超过1.2亿吨。从出口前景看,由于今年东北标准品玉米(二等,18个水)收购价格定在0.82元/公斤左右,由此我们可以推断,在没有政府补贴的前提下,东北玉米出口离岸成本价至少应在950元/吨以上。而根据国际市场走势来看,明年上半年其价格很可能会以稳中走低为基调。因此,国内玉米出口的市场实际 Judging from the harvest of this autumn grain crop, the total output of maize in the country will decrease from last year, but it is still expected to reach 120 million to 125 million tons. Soybean National planted area this year to reduce the total output as soon as possible. According to the estimates of the parties concerned, the total soybean output in the country decreased by about 5% over the previous year. Although the total output of feedstuffs such as corn and soybean decreased this year compared with the previous year, the market outlook for the future is still not optimistic. First, let’s analyze the maize supply and demand situation. As we all know, the total annual corn consumption in the country is about 115 million tons. Even if the feed industry starts to bottom out next year, it is estimated that the total demand for corn in the whole year will not exceed 120 million tons. From the export prospects, due to the northeast standard maize this year (second, 18 water) acquisition price is set at 0.82 yuan / kg, we can conclude that in the absence of government subsidies, the cost of Northeast exports of offshore cost At least 950 yuan / ton above. According to the trend of the international market, the price in the first half of next year is likely to be based on the steady lower. Therefore, the actual market of domestic corn exports