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没有数据能够证明今年楼市已经进入拐点,楼市要有拐点也是被银行打拐的。要判断楼市情况应该看整体数据,从整体数据来看,成交金额仅下降了几个百分点,用局部数据来判断楼市拐点是错误的。在中国经济增长率至少保持在6%时,楼市也没有泡沫。中国楼市并不是没有需求,而是需求被遏制。一方面,政府的行政限购措施抑制了一部分需求;另一方面,中国的城镇化极不稳定,大量人口进入城市,他们的收入比没被计算在内,而且是巨高的财富收入比,北京和海南的高价房照样有人买。我们无法找到中国楼市有泡沫的有力论据。
No data to prove that the property market has entered the inflection point this year, the property market inflection point is also beaten by banks. To determine the situation of the property market should look at the overall data, from the overall data, the transaction amount decreased only a few percentage points, with partial data to determine the turning point of the property market is wrong. When China’s economic growth rate remained at least 6%, there was no bubble in the property market. China’s property market is not without demand, but demand has been checked. On the one hand, the government’s administrative restrictions on purchases have dampened part of the demand. On the other hand, China’s urbanization is extremely unstable with large numbers of people entering the cities. Their income ratios are not counted, and they are hugely high wealth-income ratios. Beijing Hainan high-cost housing is still bought. We can not find strong arguments for a bubble in China’s property market.