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基本养老保险制度是城镇企业职工退休后的收入保障,在历经数年的改革后日臻完善,然而在人口年龄结构不断老化的趋势下,制度的可持续能力受到极大挑战。本文通过建立面板数据模型,研究基本养老保险制度的影响因素,以期对基本养老保险制度的可持续发展提供支持。模型分析结果显示,离退休人数、医疗保险支出以及地方政府财政支出对基本养老保险基金支出影响显著,然后全国的老龄化状况对其影响很小,可见基本养老保险制度有很强的覆盖范围限定。
The basic old-age insurance system is the income guarantee for urban enterprise workers after their retirement, which is improving after several years of reform. However, with the aging of the population age structure, the system’s sustainability is greatly challenged. In this paper, we establish a panel data model to study the influencing factors of the basic pension insurance system so as to provide support for the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance system. The results of the model analysis show that the number of retirees, medical insurance expenditures and local government expenditures have a significant impact on the expenditure on basic endowment insurance funds, and then the impact of the aging situation in the country is very small. Therefore, the basic pension insurance system has a very strong coverage limit .