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论文基于长江经济带战略视角研究江苏省工业碳排放问题,以推动“强富美高”新江苏建设。运用IPCC清单法测算了2000—2015年江苏省工业碳排放量,并构建了基于能源结构、能源强度、经济结构和经济规模的碳排放恒等式,结合LMDI分解法,对2000—2015年江苏省碳排放的工业层面进行分解。结果表明:江苏省工业碳排放总量整体呈波动上升趋势,但增速减缓,单位能耗下降速度快于人均碳排放上升速度;经济规模是工业碳排放增长的主要动力;能源强度是有效抑制碳排放的关键因素;经济结构效应对于工业碳排放增长的贡献率由正到负;能源结构因素对于工业碳排放贡献率微弱,碳减排潜力有待发挥。结合以上结论提出以“区域协同、东西互补、绿色发展”为核心的工业生态发展新思路。
Based on the strategic perspective of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper studies industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province in order to promote the construction of a new “Jiangsu-Qiangfu-Meigao” new Jiangsu Province. Using the IPCC inventory method to calculate the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015, we constructed the carbon emission identities based on the energy structure, energy intensity, economic structure and economic scale. Combined with the LMDI decomposition method, the carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015 The industrial level of emissions is decomposed. The results showed that the total industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province showed an overall upward trend of fluctuation but the growth rate slowed down and the unit energy consumption rate dropped faster than that of per capita carbon emission. The economic scale was the main driving force of industrial carbon emissions growth. The energy intensity was effectively suppressed The key factor of carbon emissions; the contribution of economic structure to the growth of industrial carbon emissions from positive to negative; the contribution of energy structure factors to industrial carbon emissions is weak and the potential of carbon emission reduction needs to be realized. Combined with the above conclusions, this paper puts forward a new idea of industrial ecological development with “regional cooperation, complementary things and green development ” as the core.