在测定目前各作业点粉尘浓度，收集历年粉尘浓度测定结果和接触石棉尘工人石棉肺发病情况的基础上，计算累积接尘量与石棉肺发病关系，用寿命表分析法和Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归模型，预测石棉肺发病趋势。若工人工作３０年，容许石棉肺患病率为３％，接触剂量为４０～５８根／年，车间空气中石棉纤维容许浓度为１３～２０ｆ／ｍｌ。要达到此目标，必须从根本上采取防尘措施 Based on the determination of dust concentration in each operation point, the measurement results of dust concentration collected in previous years and the incidence of asbestosis in asbestos workers, the relationship between cumulative dust exposure and asbestosis was calculated. Lifetime table analysis and Logistic regression model were used to predict Asbestosis lung disease trend. If workers work for 30 years, the prevalence of asbestosis in lungs is 3%, the exposure dose is 40 to 58 plants / year, and the allowable concentration of asbestos fibers in the air of the workshop is 13 ~ 20f / ml. To achieve this goal, we must fundamentally take dust-proof measures