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流域城镇化的水文效应分析对于流域管理十分重要。以长江三角洲地区太湖上游的西苕溪流域为研究区,借助分布式水文模型SWAT对流域降雨径流过程进行模拟分析;在此基础上,结合未来4种城镇化情景,在全流域以及子流域的空间尺度上,年和月的时间尺度上,模拟分析未来城镇化的长期水文效应。结果表明:①在年尺度上,全流域尺度分析表明,未来城镇化情景都将使径流深度增加,蒸发量减小,且随着城镇化比重的增加,二者的变化将更加明显。子流域尺度上,建设用地变化与年径流深度变化之间呈高度线性正相关,径流深度的变化对建设用地面积变化的敏感性高;②在月尺度上,各城镇化情景下大多数月份径流深度增加,且各月蒸发量主要表现出下降的趋势。本文采用水文模型与土地利用变化模型相耦合的方法定量评估未来城镇化对流域水文过程的长期影响,既为土地利用变化水文效应的分析提供了新的理论依据和参考,也为流域管理和规划人员提供了决策基础和方向。
Hydrological effects of urbanization in river basins are important to watershed management. Taking the Xitiaoxi basin in the upper reaches of the Taihu Lake in the Yangtze River Delta as a study area, the distributed hydrological model SWAT was used to simulate the process of rainfall and runoff in the basin. On this basis, combining with the four urbanization scenarios in the future, On the scale, year and month time scales, the long-term hydrological effects of future urbanization are simulated and analyzed. The results show that: (1) At the annual scale, the scale analysis of the whole basin shows that the future urbanization scenarios will increase the runoff depth and reduce the evaporation, and the change will become more obvious as the proportion of urbanization increases. On the sub-catchment scale, there is a highly linear positive correlation between the change of land for construction and the change of annual runoff depth. The change of runoff depth is highly sensitive to the change of construction land area. On the monthly scale, the monthly runoff of most of the urbanization scenarios Depth increased, and the monthly evaporation mainly showed a downward trend. In this paper, the long-term impact of urbanization on hydrological processes in the future is quantified using a coupled approach of hydrological models and land-use change models, which not only provides a new theoretical basis and reference for the analysis of hydrological effects of land-use change, but also provides a theoretical basis for watershed management and planning Staff provides the basis for decision-making and direction.