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基于ARMA(1,1)条件下的农产品需求,文章引入努力水平和剩余系数两个变量,建立了快速响应下的供应链成员订货模型及供应链利润函数,针对供应链绩效问题进行了研究。研究表明,农产品供应链需求波动呈“U”形分布,既存在牛鞭效应,也存在反牛鞭效应;相比剩余系数,努力水平对供应链牛鞭效应和利润的影响更大;较大努力水平下的农产品剩余减少了供应链利润却有助于减弱牛鞭效应,较小努力水平下的农产品剩余既减少了供应链利润又加剧了牛鞭效应;供应链利润呈“丿”形分布,供应链牛鞭效应与利润不相关。
Based on the demand of agricultural products under the condition of ARMA (1,1), this paper introduces two levels of effort level and residual coefficient, and establishes the ordering model of supply chain members and the profit function of supply chain under rapid response, and studies the performance problems of supply chain. The research shows that the fluctuating demand of agricultural products supply chain has a “U” shape distribution, which has both the bullwhip effect and the anti-bullwhip effect. Compared with the remaining coefficients, the effort level has a greater impact on the bullwhip effect and profit in the supply chain. A larger level of effort to reduce the remaining agricultural products supply chain profits but will help weaken the bullwhip effect, a smaller level of agricultural product remaining reduces supply chain profits and aggravate the bullwhip effect; supply chain profit was "Shape distribution, the bullwhip effect in the supply chain is not related to profit.