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目的开展肺癌死亡率和烟草销售增长率等相关研究,探讨烟草销售与肺癌死亡的因果关系,为制定控烟策略提供依据。方法 1.从新密市结核病防治所的人口死因登记中获取2005—2014年新密市肺癌死亡人口;2.从新密市统计局获取2005—2014年新密市人口资料;3.从新密市烟草部门获取2005—2014年新密市烟草销售额(承诺对销售额保密);4、从新密市物价部门获取2005—2014年新密市物价上涨率。结果 10年间新密市肺癌死亡总增长率为19.70%,年递增率为2.00%;10年间新密市烟草销售总增长率为218.40%,年递增率为12.30%,扣除新密市物价上涨率年均为4.20%,新密市烟草销售估算实际增长率为105.40%,年递增率为9.80%。结论新密市的研究表明,新密市烟草销售增长率和新密市肺癌死亡增长率呈正相关,新密市烟草销售年递增率每增加约5个百分点,新密市肺癌死亡则年均递增1个百分点。
Objective To carry out researches on lung cancer mortality rate and tobacco sales growth rate and to explore the causal relationship between tobacco sales and lung cancer death and provide the basis for the development of tobacco control strategies. Method 1. Obtaining the death of lung cancer in Xinmi City from 2005 to 2014 from the registration of the cause of death of population in Xinmi Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment Institute; 2. Obtaining the population information of Xinmi City from 2005 to 2014 from the Xinmi Municipal Bureau of Statistics; Department to obtain sales of tobacco in Xinmi City from 2005 to 2014 (promised to keep sales confidential); 4, to obtain the price rise rate of Xinmi from 2005 to 2014 from the Xinmi price department. Results The total growth rate of lung cancer death in Xinmi City was 19.70% within 10 years, with an annual increment rate of 2.00%. The total growth rate of tobacco sales in Xinmi City in the past 10 years was 218.40% with an annual increment rate of 12.30% With an annual average of 4.20%. The actual growth rate of Xinmi tobacco sales is estimated to be 105.40% with an annual increment rate of 9.80%. Conclusion The study of Xinmi City shows that the growth rate of sales of tobacco in Xinmi City is positively correlated with the growth rate of death of lung cancer in Xinmi City, while the annual growth rate of tobacco sales in Xinmi City is increased by about 5% 1 percentage point.