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水资源与经济增长是当今我国研究的两大课题。以水资源利用为视角,运用协整理论分析2000—2015年间辽宁省水资源利用与经济增长的关系。结果表明,辽宁省水资源利用与GDP增长之间存在着协整关系,经济增长率是辽宁省用水总量和水资源利用效率的格兰杰因;经济增长率每提升1%,水资源利用效率将提高约0.83%,相应的用水总量则降低约0.33%。利用ECM误差修正模型,预测辽宁省2016—2020年间年均经济增长速度为6%的所需用水总量,逆向推演基于水资源承载能力情况下经济增长的适宜速度。
Water resources and economic growth are two major topics of our country’s research. From the perspective of water resources utilization, cointegration theory was used to analyze the relationship between water resources utilization and economic growth in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2015. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the utilization of water resources and the GDP growth in Liaoning Province. The economic growth rate is the Granger factor of the total water consumption and water resources utilization efficiency in Liaoning Province. For every 1% increase in economic growth rate, water resources utilization The efficiency will increase by about 0.83%, while the corresponding total water consumption will decrease by about 0.33%. Using ECM error correction model, the total amount of water required for economic growth in Liaoning Province between 6% and 6% per year during 2016-2020 is predicted, and the appropriate speed for economic growth under water resources carrying capacity is reversely deduced.