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从流量、流向及资源合作三方面探讨辽宁省煤炭资源流动特征,并对未来5年煤炭输入量进行预测,结果表明:1)辽宁省能源产消失衡,对外依存度逐渐上升,与外省煤炭资源交流更为频繁。2)辽宁煤炭资源交流主要集中在其周边地区,内蒙古是最大的煤炭供应源,承担着未来辽宁能源安全的重任。3)由ARIMA模型预测结果可知,未来5年辽宁省煤炭资源输入量将呈现稳定增长趋势。建议采取多种模式,加强政策指引,完善与优化蒙辽煤运通道,促进蒙辽煤炭资源开发合作。
This paper explores the characteristics of coal resource flows in Liaoning Province from three aspects: flow rate, flow and resource cooperation, and predicts the coal input in the next five years. The results show that: 1) the imbalance of energy production in Liaoning Province, the gradual increase of foreign dependence, Exchange more frequently. 2) Liaoning coal resources exchange mainly in the surrounding areas, Inner Mongolia is the largest source of coal supply, assume the future of Liaoning energy security task. 3) According to the prediction results of ARIMA model, the input of coal resources in Liaoning Province will show a steady growth in the next 5 years. Proposed to take a variety of models to strengthen policy guidelines, improve and optimize the Mongolian coal transport channel, and promote coal resources in Mongolia development cooperation.