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基于区域视角的能源消费碳排放影响机理分析,是有效实现节能降耗减排的重要研究议题。本文基于投入产出理论,通过构建“能源—经济—碳排放”混合型投入产出分析框架,利用扩展的IO-SDA模型,对新疆维吾尔自治区(简称新疆)1997-2007年能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行结构分解分析。结果显示:(1)新疆能源消费碳排放从1997年的2070.08万t增长到2007年的4034.33万t,碳排放的增长主要集中在能源资源生产与加工业和矿产资源开采与加工业。(2)碳排放影响因素的直接效应分析,人均GDP、最终需求结构、人口规模和生产结构的变化是引起碳排放增长的重要影响因素,碳排放强度的降低是这一时期遏制碳排放增长的重要影响因素,说明在经济规模和人口数量不断增长的同时,经济结构未得到有效优化,生产技术未得到有效的提升,导致新疆能源消费碳排放的快速增长。(3)碳排放影响因素的间接效应分析,省域间调出、固定资本形成总额和城镇居民消费对于新疆能源消费碳排放的变化影响显著。(4)碳密集产业部门的固定资产投资增加,能源资源型产品的省域间调出增长,使得区域间“隐含碳”转移效应十分显著。
An analysis of the mechanism of carbon emissions from energy consumption based on regional perspectives is an important research topic for effectively reducing emission and reducing energy consumption. Based on the input-output theory, by using the IO-SDA model, this paper constructs a mixed input-output analysis framework of “energy-economy-carbon emission” Emission factors for structural analysis. The results show that: (1) Xinjiang’s carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20,708,000 tons in 1997 to 40,343,300 tons in 2007. The growth of carbon emissions mainly concentrates on energy resources production and processing industry and mineral resources exploitation and processing industry. (2) The direct effect analysis of carbon emission factors, the change of per capita GDP, final demand structure, population size and production structure are the important influencing factors for the increase of carbon emissions. The reduction of carbon emission intensity is to curb the growth of carbon emissions during this period Important factors that illustrate the economic size and population continue to grow at the same time, the economic structure has not been effectively optimized, production technology has not been effectively improved, leading to the rapid growth of energy consumption in Xinjiang’s carbon emissions. (3) Indirect effect analysis of carbon emission factors, provincial-level transfer, total fixed capital formation and urban household consumption have a significant impact on the change of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. (4) The investment in fixed assets in the carbon-intensive industries increased, and the growth of provinces and regions in energy-resource-based products increased, making the inter-region transfer effect of “hidden carbon” significant.