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选取1994～2011年我国造纸业的年度数据,运用回归分析、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验对我国纸产品贸易与造纸产业发展的互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明:我国纸产品贸易与造纸业的发展存在长期稳定关系。长期来看,我国纸产品进口每增加1个单位,将促进纸和纸板产量增加约0.71个单位,而出口对产业发展的影响并不显著。
Select the annual data of China’s paper industry from 1994 to 2011, using the regression analysis, cointegration test, Granger causality test of China’s paper products trade and papermaking industry’s interactive relationship between empirical research. The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between the trade of paper products and the development of paper industry in our country. In the long run, for every 1 unit increase in the import of paper products in our country, the output of paper and paperboard will be increased by about 0.71 units. However, the impact of exports on industrial development is not significant.