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本文利用2001年1月至2013年8月的月度数据,用相关性UC模型实证分析出总体价格水平、食品消费价格水平、非食品消费价格水平中起决定作用的都是相应的持久性成分。进一步实证得出,食品价格水平持久性对总体价格水平持久性的贡献度,在大部分时间内都在1/3以上,平均贡献度为34.40%,大于食品价格水平在总体价格水平中的权重值33.16%,说明我国食品价格水平的持久性在很大程度上影响总体价格水平的长期潜在趋势。
Using the monthly data from January 2001 to August 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the overall price level, the consumer price level of food, and the non-food consumer price level, all of which are determinants of the corresponding persistence components. Further empirical evidence shows that the persistence of food price level on the overall price level persistence in most of the time are more than 1/3, the average contribution of 34.40%, greater than the price level of food in the overall price level of the weight A value of 33.16%, indicating that the persistence of China’s food price level will largely affect the long-term potential trend of the overall price level.