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伴随着国际油价“过山车”般的大起大落,2008年国内油品市场动荡的剧烈程度也是史无前例的。展望2009年的国内油品市场,对于绝大多数的市场参与者来说,应当是相对平稳而沉闷的一年。国际油价的回归,为政府推行燃油税及新的国内油品价格机制以有利机会;相对宽松的价格调整空间,将使2009年的国内油品价格更为紧密地与国际原油价格同步变化。市场价格和运行成本的相对合理化,将使国内炼厂得以在比较正常的市场环境下操作。而能源消费成本的降低,也将给在经济极度疲软重压下的消费者以喘息的机会。预计2009年中国的石油需求将上升到约864万桶/日(约3.98亿吨),比2008年增长约4.0%。
With the ups and downs of international oil prices “roller coaster”, the turmoil in the domestic oil market in 2008 was also unprecedented. Looking forward to the domestic oil market in 2009, for the vast majority of market participants, it should be a relatively steady and boring year. The return of international oil prices offers favorable opportunities for the government to implement a fuel tax and a new domestic oil price mechanism. Relatively relaxed space for price adjustment will make the domestic oil prices in 2009 more closely follow the international crude oil prices. The relatively rationalization of market prices and operating costs will enable domestic refineries to operate under more normal market conditions. The reduction of energy consumption costs will also give consumers a chance to breathe under the pressure of extreme economic weakness. It is estimated that China’s oil demand will rise to about 8.64 million barrels / day (about 398 million tons) in 2009, an increase of about 4.0% over 2008.