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鲐鱼是我国近海大型围网和群众围网船队主要捕捞种类。如何兼顾两种渔业的利益,并从生物、经济和社会效益来科学制定渔业管理目标,是确保该资源可持续利用的重要研究内容之一。本文根据渔获统计等数据,在理论上模拟了50年内(1948年-2048年)大型围网和群众围网捕捞船队的动态变化,探讨5种方案下各渔业捕捞努力量、鲐鱼资源量、产量及利润,以及与其对应的总利润及总产量的动态变化情况。模拟结果表明:所有方案下,资源量在前10年(1998年-2008年)中都出现较大幅度的减少,随后趋于稳定并维持在较低的水平上。在基准方案下,群众围网船队在捕捞努力量、产量及利润方面占优。其余方案中,大型围网船队最终在捕捞努力量和产量占优,但其利润接近于0。结合累计产量和利润,方案c(降低大型围网成本)由于兼顾了大型围网的经济效益及群众围网的社会效益,可认为是目前适合东黄海鲐鱼长期的管理方式。
Anchovy is the main fishing species of the large-scale seine network and the mass seine network in China. How to balance the interests of the two fisheries and scientifically set the fishery management objectives from biological, economic and social benefits is one of the important research contents to ensure the sustainable utilization of the resources. Based on the data such as catches, this paper simulates the dynamic changes of large-scale seine and mass seine fishing fleets within 50 years (1948-2048) according to the data of catch statistics and so on, and then studies the fishing effort, fishing resources , Output and profit, as well as their corresponding total profit and gross output dynamic changes. The simulation results show that under all scenarios, the amount of resources has decreased significantly in the first 10 years (1998-2008), then stabilized and maintained at a relatively low level. Under the benchmark program, the mass seining fleet dominates fishing effort, output and profits. In the rest of the options, large-sized seine fleets eventually dominated fishing effort and production, but their profits were close to zero. Considering the economic benefits of large seine and the social benefits of public seine, program c (reducing the cost of large seine) can be considered as the current long-term management method suitable for the bream of the East Yellow Sea, in combination with the cumulative production and profits.