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近年来我国房价上涨迅猛,其速度已经远超过GDP和人均可支配收入等经济基本面指标的增长速度。在这种背景下,探索我国房地产市场是否存在泡沫已经成为理论界的热点问题。本文分别量化研究了近年来经济基本面和泡沫对大中城市房价波动的贡献,结果表明发现我国大中城市中房地产价格不能被经济基本面所解释,高房价偏离了经济基本面所决定的市场均衡值,我国房地产市场中已经存在泡沫。
In recent years, China’s housing prices rose rapidly, the speed has far exceeded the growth rate of GDP and per capita disposable income and other economic fundamentals. In this context, to explore whether there is a bubble in China’s real estate market has become a hot issue in the theoretical circle. This paper respectively quantifies the contribution of economic fundamentals and bubbles to the volatility of housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in recent years. The results show that the real estate prices in large and medium-sized cities in China can not be explained by economic fundamentals, and high housing prices deviate from the market determined by economic fundamentals Equilibrium value, China’s real estate market already exists in the bubble.