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本世纪前10年,中国可再生能源采取开放型发展模式,凭借风电产业“以市场换技术”的战略及光伏产业“两头在外”的发展模式,加之国内政策的大力扶持,连续3年保持全球风电第一大国地位,2011年中国光伏电池产量占到全球产量的56.5%,光伏组件出口量占当年全球新增光伏装机容量的54.6%。然而自2010年末起,中国可再生能源产业频繁遭遇国外“双反”制裁,正面临“保护难”和“出口难”的两难困境,“以市场换技术”战略难以为继,“两头在外”的发展模式也走到了尽头。开放式的发展模式已不适合产业的进一步发展,中国可再生能源产业开始步入主要依靠国内市场、依靠自主创新的内向化发展新阶段。中国的可再生能源市场前景广阔,国内市场足以支撑产业的发展。虽然国外企业在技术水平方面领先于中国企业,但由于技术边界效应的存在,中国企业在国内市场上还是有优势的。新阶段中国的产业政策应该转向大力开发国内市场,将补贴产品的生产和贸易环节改为补贴生产要素,并加大对可再生能源消费端的补贴。同时,要加快提升企业自主创新能力和产业技术水平。
In the first 10 years of this century, China adopted an open development model for renewable energy. With the development of the wind power industry, the strategy of “changing markets by technology” and the photovoltaic industry, “both ends of the world” and the vigorous support of domestic policies, 3 years to maintain the position of the largest wind power in the world. In 2011, China’s photovoltaic cell production accounted for 56.5% of the global output, while the export of photovoltaic modules accounted for 54.6% of the newly added PV installed capacity in the world. However, since the end of 2010, China’s renewable energy industry has frequently encountered foreign “double-reverse” sanctions, facing the dilemma of “protecting hard” and “exporting hard”, and the “market-for-technology” strategy Unsustainable, “two out” mode of development has come to an end. The open development mode is no longer suitable for the further development of the industry. China’s renewable energy industry has started to rely mainly on the domestic market and relied on the inward-looking development of independent innovation to develop a new stage. China’s renewable energy market has a bright future and the domestic market is enough to support the development of the industry. Although foreign enterprises are ahead of Chinese enterprises in terms of technical level, Chinese enterprises still have advantages in the domestic market due to the effect of technological boundary. In the new phase, China’s industrial policy should be shifted to vigorously developing the domestic market, changing the production and trade of subsidized products to subsidizing factors of production, and increasing subsidies on the consumption side of renewable energy. At the same time, we must speed up the capacity of independent innovation and industrial technology.