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2014年以来,在多种因素作用下,房地产市场降温明显,这为推动中国经济转型,降低对房地产业的过度依赖提供了有利时机。但是,房地产投资的较快下行也引发了房地产投资下行是否会对宏观经济带来不利影响的担心。本文采用定量分析方法测算了房地产投资放缓对GDP增长的影响。测算结果显示,房地产投资下行确实会对GDP增长带来一定的不利影响,但发生断崖式下跌可能性较小,此轮调整可能会持续2—3年。一、测算表明:房地产投资下行会对GDP增长产生一定的负面影响房地产行业对宏观经济的影响一直备受关注,
Since 2014, the cooling down of the real estate market under various factors has provided a favorable opportunity to promote China’s economic restructuring and reduce over-reliance on the real estate industry. However, the relatively rapid downturn of real estate investment has also raised concerns about whether the downturn of real estate investment will adversely affect the macroeconomy. This paper uses a quantitative analysis method to measure the impact of slowing real estate investment on GDP growth. The results show that real estate investment downturn does have some negative impact on GDP growth, but the possibility of a cliff-like decline is smaller, this round of adjustment may last 2-3 years. First, the calculation shows that: the downward trend of real estate investment will have some negative impact on GDP growth The real estate industry’s macroeconomic impact has been much attention,