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本研究以广西地区31a生台湾杉人工林为研究材料,进行项目投资风险评估,为该树种的培育与推广种植提供参考依据。采用经济学的动态序列分析、敏感性分析和静态盈亏分析等方法展开投资项目的风险评估。结果表明:31a生台湾杉人工林内部收益率达到峰值为19.04%,投资项目财务净现值为35 541.13元/hm2,总体水平高于当地经济水平;台湾杉人工林在第26a经营期内部收益率最高为19.04%;台湾杉人工林投资项目受木材价格影响最为敏感。总结得出,台湾杉人工林项目投资经济利润大,风险小,适应广西当地种植,该林分最佳轮伐期为第26a。
In this study, the Tai’an fir plantation of Tai’an in Guangxi Province was used as the research material to evaluate the project investment risk and provide a reference for cultivating and popularizing the tree species. Using dynamic sequence analysis of economics, sensitivity analysis and static profit and loss analysis and other methods to carry out investment risk assessment. The results showed that the internal rate of return of Taiwan’s fir plantation reached 19.04%, the net present value of investment was 35 541.13 yuan / hm2, the overall level was higher than the local economic level. The internal profit of Taiwan fir plantation during the period of 26a The highest rate of 19.04%; Taiwan fir plantation investment projects by the most sensitive to the impact of timber prices. The conclusion is that Taiwan fir plantation investment in economic profit, risk is small, adapt to the local planting in Guangxi, the rotation of the best for the section 26a.