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人口增长与经济发展之间的关系是经济研究中长期关注的问题。本文根据贵州省1978—2008年的统计资料,对贵州省改革开放以来人口增长与经济发展的基本状况分别进行了描述性统计分析。同时,为了能更加深入研究贵州省人口增长与经济发展的关系,在单位根检验、协整检验的基础上,建立了VAR模型进行了脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解等实证研究。结果表明:贵州省人口增长与经济发展缓慢相伴而生,两者之间存在着长期的负交互作用:人口增长越快,经济发展越慢;而经济发展越快,则人口增长越慢。
The relationship between population growth and economic development is a long-term concern in economic research. Based on the statistical data of Guizhou Province from 1978 to 2008, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the basic conditions of population growth and economic development in Guizhou Province since the reform and opening up. In the meantime, in order to further study the relationship between population growth and economic development in Guizhou Province, a VAR model was established based on the unit root test and the co-integration test. The impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition were established. The results show that there is a long-term negative interaction between population growth and economic development in Guizhou Province. The faster the population growth is, the slower the economic development. The faster the economic development, the slower the population growth.