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可靠性灵敏度设计在可靠性设计和修改、可靠性稳健优化设计、可靠性维护等方面均有重要意义。在基于计算截尾概率的Esscher’s近似技术的结构可靠性分析方法基础上,利用对非线性极限状态方程在基本随机变量均值点处做一阶泰勒展开的方法,提出计算具有非线性极限状态的结构失效概率方法即均值一阶Esscher’s近似可靠性设计方法(Mean-value first order Esscher’s approximation,MVFOEA),在此基础上,结合灵敏度分析技术,提出基于均值一阶Esscher’s近似的可靠性灵敏度分析方法。基于Esscher’s近似技术的结构可靠性分析方法要求基本随机变量相互独立,有矩母函数,并且要求极限状态函数具有显式表达式。由于利用基本随机变量全部的概率信息,而不仅仅是前几阶矩,提出的方法与可靠性分析的矩法相比,在计算失效概率时有较高的精度,通过三个数值算例验证了新方法高的计算精度。
Reliability Sensitivity design is of great importance in reliability design and modification, robust and reliable reliability design, reliability maintenance and so on. Based on the method of structural reliability analysis of Esscher’s approximation based on the calculated censoring probability, a method of first-order Taylor expansion of nonlinear limit state equations at the mean point of the basic random variables is proposed, and the structure of nonlinear limit state equations Based on this, combined with the sensitivity analysis technique, a reliability sensitivity analysis method based on mean-order first-order Esscher’s approximation is proposed. The method of structural reliability analysis based on Esscher’s approximation requires that the basic random variables are independent of each other and have a momentous mother function, and that the limit state function requires an explicit expression. Due to the use of all the probability information of the basic random variables, not just the previous moments, the proposed method has higher precision in calculating the failure probability than the moment method of reliability analysis. Three numerical examples show that New method of high computational accuracy.