论文部分内容阅读
中国城镇化水平不断上升,同时伴随能源消耗的迅速攀升,中国能源资源约束日益加剧、能源安全、碳排放约束等问题要求我们必须考虑城镇化对能源消费以及经济发展的影响。基于2007年中国投入产出表,编制社会核算矩阵,构建静态CGE模型,模拟城镇化对中国能源消费和经济增长的影响。结果显示:城镇化对宏观经济发展具有明显的正向拉动作用;受收入效应的影响,城镇化带来居民能源需求增加,同时替代效应使得生产部门能源投入增加,能源需求的增加推动能源价格上涨;城镇化使得居民总体福利上升,其中城镇居民福利增加更为显著。
With the rising urbanization in China and the rapid rise of energy consumption, China’s energy resource constraints are increasingly aggravated. Issues such as energy security and carbon emissions constraints require that we must consider the impact of urbanization on energy consumption and economic development. Based on China’s input-output table for 2007, a social accounting matrix was prepared, a static CGE model was constructed to simulate the impact of urbanization on China’s energy consumption and economic growth. The results show that urbanization has a significant positive effect on macroeconomic development. Due to the income effect, urbanization brings about an increase in energy demand of residents. In the meantime, the substitution effect makes the input of energy in the production sector increase. The increase in energy demand drives up the price of energy ; Urbanization makes the overall welfare of residents increase, among which the urban residents’ welfare increase more significantly.