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汽车消费的高速增长最直接的正面效果是拉动消费,带动了经济增长,2002年,汽车工业为整个工业增长的贡献率达到11%,在所有工业行业中,对工业增长的带动作用仅次于电子信息,连续两年居第二位。按单一产品计算,汽车已经成为当前工业增长中最突出的亮点。汽车工业2002年对整个工业利润增长的贡献率达19.3%,位居各行业之首。今年1至7月份,汽车制造业销售收入超过了纺织业和器械制造业,成为继电子通信、电力行业、黑色冶金行业和化工行业之后,成为我国工业第五大支柱行业。汽车工业又是产业关联度很高的产业,汽车工业产值与相关产业的关联度是1:2,其间接关联度达到1:5,当前我国汽车产业链的产值已占规模以上工业产值的20%左右。汽车工业的高速发展还将带动机械加工业、新材料产业、能源产业、汽车服务业、金融业和商贸的高速发展。任何事物都具有两重性,汽车产业高速发展在给我们带来诸多好处的同时,同样也会给我们的经济和社会造成不利影响。考虑到汽车属于二次消费品,爆发性的高速增长和巨大的汽车社会保有量必将对一个国家的资源、交通、环保、社会运行效率等产生巨大冲击,直接影响将来的国计民生。对社会的影响力甚至要远远大于三峡工程。
The most direct positive effect of the rapid growth of automobile consumption is to stimulate consumption and promote economic growth. In 2002, the contribution rate of the automobile industry to the entire industrial growth reached 11%. In all industrial sectors, the leading role of industrial growth was second only to that of Electronic information, ranking second for two consecutive years. Calculated on a single basis, the car has become the most prominent highlight of the current industrial growth. Automobile industry in 2002 contributed to the entire industrial profit growth rate of 19.3%, ranking first in various industries. From January to July this year, the sales revenue of the automobile manufacturing industry surpassed that of the textile and equipment manufacturing industries and became the fifth pillar industry of China’s industry after the electronic communications, power industry, black metallurgy industry and chemical industry. The automobile industry is also an industry with a high degree of industrial correlation. The industrial output value of the automobile industry is related to related industries at a ratio of 1: 2, and the indirect correlation is 1: 5. At present, the output value of China’s automobile industrial chain accounts for 20% of the industrial output above designated size %about. The rapid development of automobile industry will also drive the rapid development of mechanical processing industry, new material industry, energy industry, automobile service industry, financial industry and commerce and trade. Everything has a dual nature. The rapid development of the automobile industry has brought many benefits to us. It will also adversely affect our economy and society. Considering that automobiles are second consumer goods, explosive high growth and enormous car ownership will surely have a huge impact on a country’s resources, transportation, environmental protection and social operation efficiency, which will directly affect future national economy and people’s livelihood. The impact on society is even greater than the Three Gorges Project.