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应急响应目标的可满足性评估对应急响应的实施具有重要指导作用,针对应急响应目标可满足性存在不确定性的问题,提出一种在“情景-应对”模式下能够对目标可满足性进行评估的方法.该方法在证据理论框架下,首先基于信度结构构建目标可满足性表示模型,在表示模型的基础上,文章结合情景,采用信度规则推理出叶子目标的可满足性.然后提出改进的OWA算子用以计算目标分解权重,进而采用证据融合算法评估高层目标的可满足性,评估结果可为决策者提供理论依据.最后,采用算例验证了方法的有效性,结果表明,该方法能够兼顾目标间的作用关系,其评估结果能较好地与人的主观直觉判断相一致.
The assessment of the satisfiability of the emergency response objective has an important guiding role in the implementation of the emergency response. In view of the uncertainty of the satisfiability of the emergency response goal, this paper proposes a method that can satisfy the goal in the “scenario-response” mode This method constructs the target satisfiability representation model based on the belief structure, and based on the representation model, the article deduces the satisfiability of the leaf target by using the reliability rules based on the scenarios Then the improved OWA operator is proposed to calculate the weight of target decomposition, and then the evidence fusion algorithm is used to evaluate the satisfiability of high-level objectives. The evaluation results provide the theoretical basis for decision makers.Finally, an example is used to verify the effectiveness of the method, The results show that this method can take into account the relationship between the goals, and its evaluation results can be better consistent with the subjective and intuitive judgments of people.