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基于1992~2011年的出口数据,分别运用出口的二元边际分解方法和修正的CMS模型分解和判别中国纸和纸板出口波动的影响因素,并比较分析金融危机前后中国纸和纸板出口波动影响因素的差异。研究表明:在后危机时代,中国纸和纸板出口波动的影响因素、影响方向和影响程度与金融危机前相似;集约边际和需求规模效应是影响出口波动的主导因素;出口竞争力效应具有较强的正效应;出口结构效应抑制了中国纸和纸板出口的增长。
Based on the export data from 1992 to 2011, this paper uses the export binary marginal factorization method and the modified CMS model respectively to decompose and discriminate the influencing factors on the export fluctuation of paper and paperboard in China. The influencing factors on the export fluctuation of paper and paperboard in China before and after the financial crisis The difference. The research shows that in the post-crisis era, the influencing factors of the fluctuation of paper and paperboard export in China are similar to those before the financial crisis. The intensive marginalization and the demand-scale effect are the main factors that affect the export fluctuation. The export competitiveness has a strong effect The positive effect; the export structure has inhibited the growth of China’s paper and cardboard exports.