近年来我国城市交通出现较为严重的拥挤,其中一个重要的背景原因就是机动化进程不但呈现加速趋势,而且其增长具有爆炸性,而以往对机动化水平的预测明显偏低。基于交通规划预测中常用的逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型分析了爆炸性机动化的形成机制,并在建立收入增长的动态模型的基础上进行了数值模拟,进而提出了相关的政策建议。 In recent years, there has been a serious congestion in urban traffic in our country. One of the important reasons for this is that the process of motorization not only shows an accelerating trend, but also its growth is explosive. In the past, the forecast of motorization level was obviously low. Based on the Logistic model, which is commonly used in traffic planning forecast, the formation mechanism of explosive motorization is analyzed. Based on the dynamic model of revenue growth, numerical simulation is carried out, and the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.