论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨气象因素对手足口病发生的影响。方法收集2009~2013年深圳市宝安区手足口病病例数据和深圳市气象数据,采用Spearman秩相关分析变量间的相关关系,应用主成分回归分析气象因素对手足口病发生的影响。结果月手足口病病例数与平均相对湿度(X1)、月降水量(X2)、平均气温(X3)、月日照时间(X5)正相关,与平均气压(X4)负相关。主成分回归分析结果表明第1主成分Z1=0.60X1+0.83X2+0.93X3-0.97X4+0.48X5的回归系数有统计学意义(t=6.835,P<0.01);主成分回归方程Lgy=2.207+0.290Z1有统计学意义(F=48.711,P<0.01)。结论手足口病的发生受气温、气压、降雨量、相对湿度和日照时间的影响,其中气温、气压、降水量是主要影响因素。
Objective To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The data of HFMD in Shenzhen Baoan District from 2009 to 2013 and the meteorological data of Shenzhen were collected. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the variables. The principal component regression was used to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on hand-foot-mouth disease. Results The number of HFMD cases was positively correlated with mean relative humidity (X1), monthly precipitation (X2), mean temperature (X3) and monthly sunshine duration (X5), negatively correlated with mean barometric pressure (X4). The principal component regression analysis showed that the regression coefficients of the first principal component Z1 = 0.60X1 + 0.83X2 + 0.93X3-0.97X4 + 0.48X5 were statistically significant (t = 6.835, P <0.01); the principal component regression equation was Lgy = 2.207 + 0.290Z1 was statistically significant (F = 48.711, P <0.01). Conclusion The occurrence of hand, foot and mouth disease is affected by temperature, air pressure, rainfall, relative humidity and sunshine time, of which temperature, barometric pressure and precipitation are the main influential factors.