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文章根据甘肃省年度数据,分别从短期和长期分析居民消费价格指数的影响及其传导机制。短期研究发现CPI受自身的影响最大且持续时间长,地方一般财政预算支出与CPI表现为反方向变动,固定资产投资率和城镇居民可支配收入对CPI的影响最直接。而长期进出口总额对CPI的影响最大且具有抑制作用,地方一般财政预算支出与CPI表现为同方向变动。CPI波动的短期传导机制有多种,传导方向可逆。如果传导方向不可
Based on the annual data of Gansu Province, the article analyzes the impact of consumer price index and its transmission mechanism in the short and long term separately. Short-term studies find that CPI is the most influential and long-lasting factor in itself. Local general budgetary expenditures and CPI show the opposite trend. The impact of fixed asset investment rate and disposable income of urban residents on CPI is the most direct. The long-term total import and export volume has the greatest impact on the CPI and has an inhibitory effect. Local general budget expenditure and CPI performance in the same direction changes. CPI fluctuations in the short-term conduction mechanism has a variety of reversible direction of conduction. If the conduction direction is not