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耦合海洋和溢油模型,建立起1个适用于长江口深水航道内溢油轨迹预报模型。海洋模型考虑了深水航道中导堤丁坝的影响,能够较好地模拟深水航道内流场,使物理场更加可信;溢油模型采用前国际上常用的随机游走和拉格朗日油粒子追踪法,预测油粒子的漂移扩散轨迹和扫海面积。研究表明:在深水航道中段发生的溢油事故,油粒子的漂移分布和扫海面积受导堤丁坝和流场的共同影响,涨急时刻溢油24h后油粒子的分布和扫海主要分布在导堤丁坝附近,落急时刻溢油的油粒子则大部分分布于导堤丁坝外,扫海面积也比涨急时刻大,对九段沙自然保护敏感区域产生一定程度的潜在生态影响。本文用数值实验的方法验证了海洋模型中考虑导堤丁坝与不考虑导堤丁坝相比,溢油轨迹预测是有差别的,考虑了导堤丁坝会对油粒子在导堤丁坝附近的漂移和扩散起阻挡约束和聚集的作用,没有考虑导堤丁坝的溢油扫海面积增大。
Coupled with the ocean and oil spill model, a model for forecasting oil spill trajectory in the Yangtze Estuary deepwater channel was established. The ocean model considers the influence of the dyke and the dyke in the deepwater channel, and can simulate the flow field in the deepwater channel so as to make the physics field more credible. The oil spill model adopts the former international random walk and Lagrangian oil particles Tracing method to predict the drift trajectory and swept sea area of oil particles. The results show that the distribution of oil particles and the sweeping of the sea are mainly distributed in the mid-section of the deep-water channel due to the oil spill, the drift distribution of the oil particles and the sea sweeping area. Most of the oil spill particles near the dyke near the dikes are distributed outside the dyke dam. The sweep area is also larger than that of the rush hour, which has some potential ecological impact on the sensitive areas of Jiuduansha nature reserve. In this paper, numerical experiments are used to verify that there is a difference in prediction of oil spill trajectory when considering dike dikes in ocean model compared with dikes without guide dikes. Considering the drifts of oil dike near dykes in dykes Diffusion from the restraint and aggregation of the role of restraint, did not consider the guide dyke dam spill sweep sea area increases.