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本文利用23个新兴市场经济国家20年间的面板数据,对汇率制度和通货膨胀的关系进行实证研究,对我国汇率改革实践进行了考察。从我国的实际情况看,汇率波动的幅度越大则通胀率均值越大,2005年实行管理浮动以来我国通胀率处于明显的上升趋势。我国应该限制人民币升值幅度,发挥汇率的“名义驻锚”的作用,以此遏制通胀的进一步发展。
Using the panel data of 23 emerging market economies over 20 years, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between the exchange rate system and inflation, and examines the practice of China’s exchange rate reform. Judging from the actual situation in our country, the larger the rate of exchange rate fluctuations, the larger the average inflation rate. Since the implementation of the management float in 2005, the inflation rate of our country has been on a clear upward trend. China should limit the rate of RMB appreciation and play the role of the “nominal anchor” of the exchange rate in order to curb the further development of inflation.