论文部分内容阅读
金融投资是一个商品经济的概念,它是随着投资概念的不断发展,在实物投资的基础上形成的,并逐步成为比实物投资更受人们关注的投资行为。我们建立了两种模型来求解金融投资问题,模型一是正态分布模型,我们通过非参数检验证明了该模型的合理性和正确性,并通过参数估计求出了符合该问题的正态分布参数:均值为7.4863,方差为97.0618。在该模型下,我们估计出在下一个周期(如1天)内的损失的数额超过10万元的可能性为0.0380;95%的置信度保证损失的数额不会超过8.72万元;一个周期内的损失超过10万元的可能性不大于5%的情况下初始投资额最多为1146.9万元。模型二为概率函数拟合模型,该模型是基于频率直方图的,对频率直方图中每个频率长方形上部中点数据进行拟合,得到总体的近似概率分布图和拟合函数,然后利用该拟合函数求解问题在该模型下,我们求出下一个周期(如1天)内的损失的数额超过10万元的可能性为0.03888;95%的置信度保证损失的数额为8万元;在一个周期内的损失超过10万元的可能性不大于5%,那么初始投资额最多为1250万元。
Financial investment is a concept of commodity economy. With the continuous development of investment concept, financial investment is formed on the basis of physical investment and gradually becomes an investment behavior that attracts more attention than physical investment. We set up two models to solve the financial investment problem. The model one is a normal distribution model. We prove the rationality and correctness of the model through nonparametric tests. The normal distribution of the model is obtained through parameter estimation Parameters: mean 7.4863, variance 97.0618. Under this model, we estimate that the probability of losing more than 100,000 yuan in the next cycle (such as 1 day) is 0.0380; the 95% confidence level will ensure that the loss will not exceed 87,200 yuan; within one cycle Of the loss of more than 100,000 yuan the possibility of not more than 5% of the initial investment up to a maximum of 11,149,000 yuan. The second model is a fitting function of probability function. The model is based on frequency histogram. The upper half of the rectangle in each frequency histogram in the frequency histogram is fitted to obtain the approximate approximate probability distribution and fitting function. Then, Fitting function to solve the problem In this model, we find the next cycle (such as one day) the amount of the loss of more than 100,000 yuan the possibility of 0.03888; 95% confidence to ensure the amount of 80,000 yuan loss; In a cycle of loss of more than 100,000 yuan is not more than 5% of the likelihood, then the initial investment up to 12.5 million yuan.