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根据1854～1993年期间的El Nino事件资料序列,通过正态性、独立性等统计检验,确定序列的性质。利用Markov随机过程和一阶自回归建立预测模式,给出了下次发生El Nino事件的时间可能在2002年前后。2001年发生的概率为44 %;2002年发生的概率为61 %。
Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of the sequence was confirmed by statistical tests such as normality and independence. The Markov stochastic process and the first-order autoregressive model are used to establish the forecasting model, and the time of next El Nino event may be around 2002. The probability of occurrence in 2001 was 44%; the probability of occurrence in 2002 was 61%.