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运用实证研究方法对政策效果进行评估是政策评估发展的趋势之一.本研究总结并用应用案例介绍假设检验、分段回归分析的间断时间序列、自回归综合移动平均模型、双重差分模型、混合回归模型、固定效应模型、随机效应模型、倾向得分匹配法、成本-收益分析和成本-效益分析.作者以流程图的形式演示在实际研究中如何依据政策评价目的、是否有对照组、数据类型和数据是否为线性来选择实证研究方法的过程.“,”Healthcare policies are often evaluated using empirical analysis methods.In this study,we summarized the hypothesis test,segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series,autoregressive integrated moving average model,difference in difference model,pooled regression model,fixed effect model,random effect model,propensity score matching method,cost-benefit analysis,and cost-effectiveness analysis.We also established a flow chart to demonstrate the process of selection of empirical analysis methods based on the purpose of policy evaluation,whether there is a control group,the type of data,and whether the data is linear.