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为深入研究三峡坝区船舶通航风险的演化过程,通过分析三峡大坝通航风险与其影响因素间的因果关系和影响函数,构建三峡坝区船舶通航风险演化的系统动力学(SD)模型,并运用Vensim软件模拟各因素影响下的船舶通航风险演变过程。仿真结果表明:当能见度、交通流密度、船员操作准确度、船舶设备故障率中某一影响因素恶化时,可以通过通航监管对其进行控制,从而降低由该因素带来的额外风险;随着影响因素恶化,坝区船舶通航风险将不同程度地增大,其中船员操作准确度影响最大。
In order to deeply study the evolvement process of ship navigation risk in the Three Gorges Dam Area, a system dynamics (SD) model of ship navigation risk evolution in the Three Gorges Dam Area is established by analyzing the causality and influence function between the navigation risk of the Three Gorges Dam and its influencing factors. Vensim software simulates the evolution of ship navigation risk under the influence of various factors. The simulation results show that when one of the influencing factors of visibility, traffic flow density, crew operational accuracy and ship equipment failure rate worsens, it can be controlled by navigational regulation to reduce the additional risk caused by this factor. With the Deteriorating factors, the dam navigation risk will increase to varying degrees, of which the crew of the greatest impact on the accuracy of operation.