目的:尝试建立初步评价模型,预测环京津地区妇女乳腺恶性肿瘤风险。方法:通过对该地区乳腺恶性肿瘤危险因素的调查及筛选,得到乳腺恶性肿瘤风险评价模型,利用ROC曲线比较该模型和Gail模型在该地区针对危险度评价的效果。结果:环京津地区女性患乳腺恶性肿瘤的可能危险因素中影响最突出的是:年龄、体重指数>25 kg/m~2、一级亲属患乳腺恶性肿瘤、因不良生活事件或情绪调节能力差导致长期不良情绪、睡眠质量差、终生未妊娠、吸烟指数>400、致密型乳腺。本研究建立的模型预测环京津地区妇女乳腺恶性肿瘤准确性高于Gail模型。结论:针对危险因素,建立初步模型,有可能更好地预测患者罹患乳腺恶性肿瘤的风险。 Objective: To establish a preliminary evaluation model to predict the risk of breast cancer in women around Beijing and Tianjin. Methods: Through the investigation and screening of the risk factors of breast cancer in the area, the risk assessment model of breast cancer was obtained. The ROC curve was used to compare the effectiveness of the model and the Gail model in the risk assessment of the area. Results: Among the possible risk factors of breast cancer in Beijing and Tianjin area, the most prominent risk factors were: age, BMI> 25 kg / m ~ 2, first-degree relatives suffering from breast cancer due to adverse life events or emotional adjustment Poor lead to long-term bad mood, poor quality of sleep, life-long non-pregnancy, smoking index> 400, dense breast. The model established in this study predicts the accuracy of breast cancer in women around Beijing and Tianjin is higher than that of Gail model. Conclusions: Establishing a preliminary model for risk factors may provide a better predictor of breast cancer risk.