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选取经济、社会、石油资源、能源消费相关因素历史数据与拉美石油出口数据建立灰色关联度分析,取灰色关联度大于0.9且相对稳定的影响因素,分别基于熵和基于模糊层次分析进行综合评价.结果认为选取的影响因素对阿根廷和委内瑞拉,适用性良好;对厄瓜多尔,适用性较好.不同国家主要影响因素不同:对阿根廷,影响因素以资源类为主,尤其是人均能源消费对阿根廷石油出口具有高关联度;对厄瓜多尔,影响因素以经济类为主;对委内瑞拉,选取的因素与石油出口关联度均较高且分布均匀.
Based on the historical data of economic, social, oil resources and energy consumption, we establish the gray relational analysis between the historical data of the related factors of energy consumption and Latin American petroleum export data. We take the influencing factors of the gray relational degree greater than 0.9 and relatively stable, and make comprehensive evaluation based on the entropy and the fuzzy AHP respectively. The results showed that the selected influencing factors were of good applicability to Argentina and Venezuela and good applicability to Ecuador.The main influencing factors differed in different countries: For Argentina, the main influencing factors were resource-based, especially the per capita energy consumption to Argentina’s oil exports With a high degree of relevance; for Ecuador, the economic factors are the main influencing factors; for Venezuela, the factors selected are highly correlated with the oil exports and distributed evenly.