利用统计分析的方法 ,通过对苏北东部沿海的大中农场 1960～ 1998年的大麦生长越冬阶段的气象资料进行分析 ,发现自 80年代以来 ,冬季气温上升明显 ,大麦生育进程超前 ,过早拔节冻害严重 ,据此提出 ,改种弱春性偏冬性品种代替春性较强的品种 ,适当推迟播期 ,合理运筹肥水及利用化控等对策措施 By means of statistical analysis, the meteorological data of barley overwintering stage from 1960 to 1998 in the large and medium-sized farms along the eastern Jiangsu coast were analyzed. The results showed that the temperature in winter increased significantly since the 1980s, the barley growth process advanced, According to the above, it is proposed that some varieties of weaker spring, partial winter winter should be replaced by stronger spring varieties, the date of sowing should be postponed properly, and fertilizer and water should be rationally applied as well as chemical control and other countermeasures