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由于伊拉克推迟出口、西方库存低下和冬季取暖油需求强劲,曾使世界油价在1996/97年度冬季涨到海湾战争结束以来的最高水平。1997年,伊拉克油恢复出口、欧佩克和非欧佩克供应量增多和西方库存充裕等因素,导致油价从年初的每桶24美元下跌到年底的17美元。1998年,欧佩克产量配额将增加大约250万桶,对市场的供应量将增多。但受亚洲金融危机的影响,增长幅度可能减弱,特别是远东地区。这些因素将对油价构成压力,布伦特油在1996年的平均价格为每桶20.75美元,预计1998年将进一步降低到18美元左右。
Due to Iraq’s delayed export, low Western stocks and strong demand for heating oil in winter, world oil prices rose to the highest level since the end of the Gulf War in the winter of 1996/97. In 1997, the recovery of exports of Iraqi oil, the increase in the supply of OPEC and non-OPEC, and the availability of Western stocks caused the price of oil to fall from US$24 a barrel at the beginning of the year to US$17 at the end of the year. In 1998, the OPEC production quota will increase by about 2.5 million barrels, and the supply to the market will increase. However, affected by the Asian financial crisis, the growth rate may be weakened, especially in the Far East. These factors will exert pressure on oil prices. The average price of Brent oil in 1996 was US$20.75 per barrel, and it is expected to further decrease to around US$18 in 1998.