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全球经济危机、中国农产品竞争力状况等因素对我国农产品贸易平衡造成影响。文章基于2005～2008年间月度数据,通过协整检验分析了各相关因素对农产品进出口的影响程度。结果表明,我国劳动力成本上升、国外需求下降、国内需求上升、人民币升值是导致中国农产品贸易逆差上升的重要原因。解决这一问题要增加人力资本和农业基础设施投入,转变经济增长方式,优化进出口结构,适度调整人民币币值,积极开拓国际市场。
The global economic crisis and the competitiveness of China’s agricultural products have an impact on the trade balance of China’s agricultural products. Based on the monthly data from 2005 to 2008, the article analyzes the influence of all relevant factors on the import and export of agricultural products through cointegration test. The results show that the rising cost of labor in our country, the drop in foreign demand, rising domestic demand and the appreciation of the renminbi are the important reasons that cause the trade deficit in China’s agricultural products to rise. To solve this problem, we must increase investment in human capital and agricultural infrastructure, transform the mode of economic growth, optimize the structure of imports and exports, moderately adjust the value of the renminbi and actively explore the international market.