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The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and analyzed the earthquake probabilities of the major faults with the elapsed time much greater than the recurrence interval in the northwest region of Bei- jing (China) in 100-year by using both Brownian passage-time model and Poisson model, and concluded that the calculated results obtained from Brownian passage-time model is more reasonable.
The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and the earthquake probabilities of the major faults with the elapsed time much greater than the recurrence interval in the northwest region of Bei- jing (China) in 100-year by using both of Brownian passage-time model and Poisson model, and that of the calculated results obtained from Brownian passage-time model is more reasonable.