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文章在对加拿大和日本两国双边贸易进行统计分析的基础上,综合两国的贸易特征将产业划分为加拿大优势产业、日本优势产业、两国均有的优势产业和其他产业四个类别,利用一般均衡模型模拟分析了加拿大和日本经济伙伴关系(EPA)的建立所带来的宏观层面和行业层面的影响。结果显示:EPA的建立会对包括加拿大和日本在内的世界主要经济体产生不同程度的影响。总体来看,加拿大比日本获益更多。加拿大的GDP和福利水平将得到提升,贸易条件将有所改善,日本的贸易顺差会进一步扩大,两国进出口贸易都将得到明显提高,行业发展具有很大的提升空间。与此同时,EPA的建立将对中国产生一定的负面影响。
Based on the statistical analysis of the bilateral trade between Canada and Japan, the article divides the industries into the four categories of the dominant industries of Canada, the dominant industries of Japan, the dominant industries of both countries and other industries based on the trade features of the two countries The general equilibrium model simulates the macro-level and industry-level impacts of the establishment of the Canadian-Japan Economic Partnership (EPA). The results show that the establishment of the EPA will affect the world’s major economies, including Canada and Japan, to varying degrees. Overall, Canada has benefited more than Japan. Canada’s GDP and welfare levels will be enhanced, the terms of trade will be improved, Japan’s trade surplus will be further expanded, both the import and export trade will be significantly improved, the development of the industry has great room for improvement. At the same time, the establishment of the EPA will have a certain negative impact on China.