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利用2011—2014年北方13个省、市、区48个不同生态点的试验数据,分析不同品种在不同生态点的越冬率、产量变化,越冬率与产量的相关性,旨在研究白菜型冬油菜在北方不同生态区的越冬安全性,确定北方冬油菜通用的安全越冬的越冬率临界值,明确影响北方冬油菜越冬率的主要因子。结果表明,不同白菜型冬油菜品种在北方不同生态地区越冬率差异较大,产量也差异较大,越冬率变幅为10%~99%,强抗寒品种越冬率>70%。回归分析表明,越冬率与产量存在明显的线性正相关,回归方程符合y=ax+b,当越冬率<70%时,产量随越冬率的增加而增加,当越冬率为70%时单位面积产量基本趋于稳定,越冬率大于70%时,越冬率对产量的影响不明显。协方差分析表明,与冬油菜越冬率相关性最为密切的因子是品种,其次是极端最低气温、冬季气温、年均气温、≤0℃的冬季负积温、纬度、经度等。因此,70%的越冬率可作为北方地区冬油菜通用安全越冬的越冬率临界值,采用强抗寒品种,极端最低气温–31.79℃、冬季气温–7.20℃、年均气温6.38℃、负积温–997.57℃,纬度低于44.83°,经度高于80.34°是保证冬油菜安全越冬的必要条件。
Based on the data from 48 different ecological points in 13 provinces, cities and districts of North China from 2011 to 2014, the correlations between overwintering rate, yield change, overwintering rate and yield of different varieties at different ecological points were analyzed. The overwintering safety of rapeseed in different ecological regions of North China determined the critical overwintering rates for universal winter overwintering in northern China and the main factors affecting overwintering rates of northern winter rapeseed. The results showed that winter rape cultivars with different cabbage types varied greatly in winter in different ecological regions in the north of China. Their winter wheat yield varied greatly from 10% to 99% with overwintering rates exceeding 70%. Regression analysis showed that there was a significant linear positive correlation between overwintering rate and yield, and the regression equation was in line with y = ax + b. When the overwintering rate was less than 70%, the yield increased with the overwintering rate. When the overwintering rate was 70%, the unit area Output basically stabilized, overwintering rate greater than 70%, the overwintering rate of yield is not obvious. Covariance analysis showed that the most closely related factors were overwinter winter rapeseed varieties are the varieties, followed by extreme minimum temperature, winter temperature, average annual temperature, winter negative accumulated temperature ≤0 ℃, latitude, longitude and so on. Therefore, the overwintering rate of 70% can be used as the critical winter wintering rate of winter rape in northern China, with strong cold-resistant varieties, the extreme minimum temperature is -31.79 ℃, the winter temperature is -7.20 ℃, the average annual temperature is 6.38 ℃, the negative accumulated temperature- 997.57 ℃, latitude less than 44.83 °, longitude higher than 80.34 ° is necessary to ensure the safety of winter rape overwintering.