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基于乌审旗1961-2010年气象数据与农牧业生产数据,分析了乌审旗近50年来气候变化规律、年末牲畜存栏变化、及其与农牧业收入之间的关系,在此基础上建立了气候要素与农牧业收入的“气候-生产力”关系模型和Ricardian模型.结果表明:MT、MTmax、MTmin、WI、CI以及H-PER呈上升趋势,其中MT、Mtmax、Mtmin上升速率分别为0.25℃/10a、0.22℃/10a、0.27℃/10a、7.86mm/10a;AP下降速率为8.67mm/10a.在该时段,年末牲畜存栏头数和载畜量呈增长趋势,年末大牲畜头数呈下降趋势;农牧业生产与气候要素变化有着密切的关系:MT、MTmax、MTmin、WI、CI、H-PER和SH分别与农牧业产值呈正相关;WS、大牲畜存栏数与农牧业产值分别成负相关.“气候-生产力”模型预测的农牧业产值与实际农牧业产值之间的相关性在α=0.01水平上分别达到0.753、0.766,决定系数R分别为0.723和0.729,“气候-生产力”模型比Ricardian模型更适用于乌审旗地区;整体来看,气候因素对农牧业收入的影响大于资本投入对农牧业收入的影响.
Based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 and the production data of agriculture and animal husbandry in Wushen County, this paper analyzes the climate change of Wushen County in the past 50 years, the change of livestock population at the end of the year and its relationship with the income of agriculture and animal husbandry. On the basis of this, The “climate-productivity” relational model and Ricardian model of climate and agriculture-husbandry income were established. The results showed that the MT, MTmax, MTmin, WI, CI and H-PER showed an upward trend with MT, Mtmax and Mtmin increasing The rate of decline of AP was 8.67mm / 10a. During this period, the number of livestock kept and the carrying capacity of livestock increased at the end of the year There is a close relationship between the production of agriculture and animal husbandry and the changes of climatic factors: MT, MTmax, MTmin, WI, CI, H-PER and SH are positively correlated with the output value of agriculture and animal husbandry respectively; WS, And the output value of agriculture and animal husbandry are respectively negatively correlated. “The correlation between the output value of agriculture and animal husbandry and the actual value of output of agriculture and animal husbandry predicted by the” climate-productivity “model reaches 0.753 and 0.766 respectively at the level of α = 0.01, and the coefficient of determination R are 0.723 and 0.729, respectively, and the ”climate-productivity" model is more Ricardian than the model Suitable for Wushenqi region; Overall, the impact of climate factors on agricultural income is greater than the impact on capital investment in agricultural income.