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从确定性与不确定性的角度,探讨了相似预测的基本理念并论述其应用于水文学的基础,以此提出了从选取特征矢量到构造预测量的完整算法.重点分析构造预测量的方法,通过分析未来出现的数值可能围绕均值左右摆动的特性,并促使应用者主动考虑预测值的不确定性,提出平均区间和序位区间的概念,为区间预测方法研究提供参考.将此理念及方法应用于宜昌站1890—2010年的年平均流量资料进行检验,结果表明:该方法对宜昌站年径流量的预测效果较好,能较好地描述径流在年尺度的变化,又能促使应用者发挥主观能动性,主动考虑预测值的不确定性.
From the point of view of certainty and uncertainty, the basic idea of similarity prediction is discussed and the basis of its application to hydrology is discussed, and a complete algorithm is proposed from selecting eigenvector to constructing predictive measure. , The analysis of future values may be based on the characteristics of the mean swinging around the mean and prompting the user to take the initiative to consider the predictive value of the uncertainty raised the concept of the average interval and ordinal interval for the interval prediction method to provide reference for this idea and The method is applied to test the annual average flow data of Yichang Station from 1890 to 2010. The results show that this method can predict the annual runoff of Yichang Station better, and can well describe the change of runoff at the annual scale, Those who play subjective initiative, take the initiative to consider the uncertainty of the forecast value.